The decision regarding Manchester City’s protracted Financial Fair Play case against the Premier League is expected ‘any day’ now, and until that announcement is made, the football community genuinely remains uncertain about the result, which will likely extend for several more months due to an appeal.
The effect of Man City's Associated Party Transaction (APT) win on their FFP status remains uncertain (if it has any), yet they continue to assert their innocence, evidenced by their significant January transfer expenditure and generous new contracts for Pep Guardiola and Erling Haaland, which reflect their unwavering confidence.
Thus, City officials would be extremely embarrassed if the decision favors the Premier League, with relegation (potentially through an unbridgeable points deduction) suggested as one of the most severe penalties.
If the worst-case scenario for Man City occurs (though it likely won't, but let's entertain this idea since a more reasonable fine would be quite disappointing), many members of their current 28-player squad (according to Transfermarkt) would almost certainly depart if a guilty ruling leads to relegation from the Premier League.
Accordingly, from least to most probable, we have assessed Man City’s complete squad for the 2024/25 season based on the chances of their exit following a relegation enforced by FFP…
We also created a version of this article featuring Man City’s 2023/24 squad because we naively didn’t anticipate this situation lasting over two bloody years… so feel free to check that out as well, if you wish).
28. Scott Carson
He's not going anywhere.
27. Claudio Echeverri
Designated as a future star, Echeverri was just signed from River Plate in January 2024. The 19-year-old would gain from an unexpected relegation as he would be gradually introduced to the first team and receive more playing time in the Championship than his current total of zero this season.
26. Nico O’Reilly
20-year-old O’Reilly is ahead of Echeverri on Man City’s development path and netted a two-goal performance in this season’s FA Cup victory against Plymouth Argyle. If they were to be relegated, Guardiola should strategically incorporate O’Reilly and other academy players in one of five steps to maximize their path back to the Premier League.
25. Vítor Reis
Although Man City's other January acquisitions have already established themselves in the first team, £29m signing Reis has not yet made his debut. However, similar to Echeverri, it wouldn't be catastrophic if he had to spend a season in the Championship.
24. Oscar Bobb
Bobb’s return from his cruciate ligament injury is drawing near, and this cannot happen soon enough for Guardiola, as Man City’s rapid decline boosts his chances of becoming a regular starter upon his return. Assuming his knee problem hasn't hindered his growth excessively, Guardiola possesses a treasure heading into the next season, particularly if they find themselves in the Championship *wink*.
23. Abdulkodir Khusanov
The second of City’s signings in January to play, Khusanov debuted against Chelsea where he struggled, but he’ll improve from that experience and clearly possesses significant potential. You might observe the Uzbekistan international and Reis as Guardiola’s initial centre-backs in the lower division.
22. Rico Lewis
The 20-year-old England international – who has already made 87 senior appearances – has been involved in the downturn experienced by City's exhausted squad and urgently requires a break. Nevertheless, Kyle Walker’s potential long-term successor possesses the essential skills to progress once more, and his connection to the club as a homegrown talent would probably result in his continued loyalty.
21. Stefan Ortega
Ortega has missed the chance to be City's new No. 1, with both he and Ederson being somewhat inconsistent (to say the least) this season. Looking forward, Guardiola will require a high-quality substitute for his existing goalkeepers. Currently, the German is more likely than his Brazilian counterpart to remain for at least another year. 20) Nico Gonzalez
Confronted with the difficult challenge of substituting for Rodri, it is yet to be determined if Gonzalez can rise to the occasion or ends up being another Kalvin Phillips. He might face the danger of being benched once the Ballon d’Or winner comes back, but that situation could change with relegation becoming a factor.
19. Omar Marmoush
The prominent highlight of Man City’s January acquisitions, Marmoush resembles the Julian Alvarez-type forward they desperately needed earlier this season and has already proven to be the top among Guardiola’s supporting forwards behind Haaland.
Had his arrival not occurred in the latest window, his position on this list would have varied significantly, with multiple Premier League and European teams expressing interest before Man City secured him.
18. Phil Foden
Foden has deteriorated after shining for Man City when he took charge during Kevin De Bruyne's absence last season.
An exceptionally talented footballer who often leaves you feeling exasperated, as demonstrated by his struggles against Albania on Friday night. The local boy aspect implies he might be more likely than City’s other top players to stay after expulsion, despite ongoing hints of interest from Europe.
17. Jamie McAtee
Guardiola’s utilization (or absence) of McAtee likely has the skilled midfielder pondering what he might be doing incorrectly, as his displays have justified additional playing time. The head coach acknowledged in December that he’s “unfairly” dealt with the 22-year-old, who wouldn’t be at fault if he gave the finger to the boss to abandon relegated City for better opportunities.
16. Mateo Kovačić
The former Chelsea player has been a bargain at £25m, and his experience would be beneficial in the Championship with City's young talents. Although many players in Guardiola's team may generate more interest than the 30-year-old Kovacic, a surprising transfer to La Liga has been suggested.
15. Manuel Akanji
Akanji has proven to be another cost-effective acquisition for Man City, although his play has diminished this season, as he and his defensive teammates have committed mistakes more frequently. Similar to Kovacic, Akanji is contracted until 2027 and won’t be inundated with proposals.
14. Jeremy Doku
For quite a while, it seemed certain that Doku would join Liverpool, but they likely aren't too upset about not signing him after observing his performances for Man City.
The Belgium international can be both electrifying and frustrating equally, as he has not yet perfected the final pass or shot. Just imagine how entertaining it would be to see Championship defenses struggling with his flashy abilities.
13. Nathan Ake
It's quite a similar situation to Akanji, actually. In general, the Netherlands international has exceeded expectations at the Etihad, despite his arrival being met with confusion, but his injury history, inconsistent recent performance, and age suggest that Man City might have a better opportunity to replace other defenders.
12. Matheus Nunes
Nunes’ £53m transfer to Man City stands as one of the most useless deals in recent Premier League history; he hardly played before becoming Guardiola’s versatile player this season. The 26-year-old midfielder has a contract running until 2028 (yikes), but his reputation from his Wolves tenure should secure him a good transfer when the moment arrives.
11. Savinho
City's sole summer addition for 2024, Savinho has dazzled at times this season but has mirrored Doku more than he would prefer lately, causing fans to pull their hair out in frustration. Nonetheless, he is a player with great potential, and various top European clubs would be interested in securing him.
10. Josko Gvardiol
The fewer comments we make regarding Gvardiol’s defensive performance this season, the better. However, in terms of offense, he continues to be a breakthrough as one of Guardiola’s most dangerous players.
Due to his lackluster defensive efforts, Gvardiol’s shift to left-back under Guardiola could negatively impact his overall performance, yet he would seamlessly integrate into Arsenal given Mikel Arteta’s evident fixation.
9. John Stones
This season has been one to forget for the injury-ridden Stones, and it has been stated that a summer departure would be 'beneficial for everyone involved.'
8. Ilkay Gündoğan
Gundogan's agility has diminished, and his comeback to Man City illustrates perfectly why returning is often ill-advised. However, he has affection for the Cityzens and they have affection for him, so it wouldn't be too shocking if he extended his stay for another year after his current contract ends in the summer if things take a turn for the worse.
7. Ruben Dias
The discussion surrounding Dias and Virgil van Dijk has concluded for the time being, as the Liverpool player's comeback coincides with the City defender's decline in the 24/25 season.
There could be a factor of Dias being held back by his teammates, and we should gain a real insight into his status following a much-deserved summer break for City’s exhausted players, but Dias would still easily secure a solid transfer if he isn’t inclined toward the Championship.
6. Jack Grealish
Grealish's departure from Man City is much anticipated, as Guardiola's efforts to mold him into the ideal winger have stripped him of his brilliance. With multiple wingers ranked higher, the Englishman requires a new beginning regardless of the outcome of the FFP hearing.
5. Silva Bernardo
Silva has consistently been associated with Barcelona and PSG in recent years, and these transfers might still be possibilities for the experienced midfielder.
4. Ederson
Strongly associated with the Saudi Pro League last summer, it is likely that the Brazil international is moving there soon, regardless of whether Man City faces relegation. He’s one of several diminished, formerly-great stars on this over-the-hill team.
3. Rodri
Man City have greatly felt the absence of Rodri, and their swift drop this season wouldn’t have been as abrupt had the Spaniard been fit, but his significant input would have merely postponed the unavoidable as this team was destined for one path.
Man City eagerly awaits Rodri's return, but they should utilize him effectively while possible, as a relegation could hasten his likely transfer to Real Madrid, which seems certain within the next year or two.
2. Erling Haaland
Regarding Manchester City players moving to Real Madrid, Haaland might join Rodri as a Galactico if we believe various Spanish sources (hint: we shouldn't).
Haaland is said to be determined not to miss any Champions League season, so it’s best not to mention the idea of playing in the Championship.
1. Kevin De Bruyne
As the fifth most valuable footballer who will be a free agent this summer, De Bruyne prefers to end his career facing Inter Miami rather than Oxford United, which is understandable.
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