Arsenal’s Rise to Premier League Title Favourites Highlighted by Surprising Table Showing Shock Club at Bottom
The reason Arsenal is the clear favourite to win the title is not just because they are at the top of the table, but also because Spurs and Bournemouth have significantly improved in another table.
As the season’s second international break gets underway, the Gunners have closed the five-point deficit to a one-point lead, putting them ahead of Liverpool.
They are now the clear favourites to win the championship, even though they still have 31 games left.
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However, when comparing Arsenal’s performance this season to the similar matchups from last season, there is an underlying analysis that strongly favours Arsenal over Liverpool.
That is perhaps the most obvious difference between the two teams, and it is also a major source of worry for two mid-table clubs.
Compared to the identical games from the 2024–25 season, the Premier League results for 2025–26 are shown in this alternative table, where Leeds, Burnley, and Sunderland replace Leicester, Ipswich, and Southampton, respectively.
17) Brighton: -9
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W6 D0 L1 F16 A9 Pts 18
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W2 D3 L2 F10 A10 Pts 9
In comparison to the boy Hurzeler, that does seem like a rather big step back. Although his ability to defeat Manchester City 2-1 at home is undoubtedly helpful, the German may be appreciative of those more well-known players who are determined to steal the show.
16) Aston Villa: -8
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W5 D2 L F13 A4 Pts 17
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W2 D3 L2 F6 A7 Pts 9
Another victim of Southampton’s and Sunderland’s disparity in difficulties, Villa’s prospects would have been considerably worse had they not foolishly drawn 1-1 with Ipswich the previous season; at least their victory against Burnley before the break was a step in the right direction.
15) Wolves: -6
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W2 D2 L3 F8 A10 Pts 8
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W0 D2 L5 F5 A14 Pts 2
Stopping the practice of selling all your talented players and replacing them with unproven unknowns at a far lower cost could be a smart idea.
14) Nottingham Forest: -5
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W3 D1 L3 F14 A14 Pts 10
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W1 D2 L4 F5 A12 Pts 5
Evangelos, my dear, what a miserable little life.
13) Newcastle: -5
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W4 D2 L1 F16 A11 Pts 14
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W2 D3 L2 F6 A5 Pts 9
It turns out that despite losing a great deal of attacking threat this season, Newcastle has played much superior defence. Eddie Howe really should hear it from someone.
12) Brentford: -4
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W3 D2 L2 F14 A8 Pts 11
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W2 D1 L4 F9 A12 Pts 7
It isn’t terrible given their summer loss, and one of their matches was against the play-off winners. It may be argued that Sunderland, who defeated Brentford 2-1 this season, is a better team than Southampton, whom Brentford defeated 5-0 last season.
11) Manchester United: -4
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W4 D2 L1 F14 A10 Pts 14
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W3 D1 L3 F9 A11 Pts 10
With all this, Erik ten Hag still stand still
10) West Ham: -4
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W2 D2 L3 F4 A10 Pts 8
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W1 D1 L5 F6 A6 Pts 4
David Moyes was in the dugout for three of the last eighteen games between West Ham and Everton, and only four of those encounters have finished in a tie.
9) Fulham: -1
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W3 D0 L4 F7 A8 Pts 9
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W2 D2 L3 F8 A11 Pts 8
Is Marco Silva’s Fulham the most Will Win About As Many Games As They Lose team in Barclays history?
8) Chelsea: -1
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W3 D3 L1 F13 A7 Pts 12
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W3 D2 L2 F12 A7 Pts 11
Chelsea defeated Brighton at home and drew with Manchester United in 2024–2025, but they had already lost to both teams back when Enzo Maresca was a blatant fraud on the verge of being fired. The loss to Fulham at Stamford Bridge was made up for eight months later.
7) Crystal Palace – Nothing changed
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W3 D3 L1 F9 A8 Pts 12
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W3 D3 L1 F9 A5 Pts 12
6) Liverpool: +1
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W4 D2 L1 F13 A8 Pts 14
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W5 D L2 F12 A8 Pts 15
Although that five straight victories made up for a few of last season’s errors, it was a blow to lose at Selhurst Park after grinding out a 1-0 triumph there in October. It’s true that being a point-up contradicts the crisis reasoning.
5) Arsenal: +5
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W3 D2 L2 F15 A8 Pts 11
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W5 D1 L1 F14 A3 Pts 16
The 2024–2025 comparable goals column is heavily glossed over by the 5-1 thumping of Manchester City in February, which was lowered to a 1-1 draw in September.
The fact that Arsenal’s two victories, which put them atop the table going into the international break, came against West Ham (h) and Newcastle (a) in games they lost the previous season, however, may be the clearest sign of their progress.
4) Everton: +5
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W1 D3 L3 F5 A9 Pts 6
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W3 D2 L2 F9 A7 Pts 11
Having only won one of the similar games in 2024–2025, Everton may have viewed the seven games running up to the October international break with dread when the fixture schedule was announced.
However, David Moyes made improvements everywhere else, and that 2-1 triumph over Crystal Palace at Goodison Park was replicated at the Hill Dickinson.
3) Manchester City: +6
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W2 D1 L4 F11 A17 Pts 7
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W4 D1 L2 F15 A6 Pts 13
We should never forget how deliciously awful Manchester City was at times during the previous campaign. Gianluigi Donnarumma is not entirely responsible for the ridiculous defensive improvement, but he has undoubtedly contributed.
2) Bournemouth: +9
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W1 D2 L4 F5 A10 Pts 5
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W4 D2 L1 F11 A8 Pts 14
After securing their yearly loss at Anfield on the first day of play, Bournemouth has had the opportunity to improve on nearly every other outcome from the previous campaign. Some 2024–25 foolishness, like losing to Leicester and not even winning at Spurs, has been firmly fixed.
1) Spurs: +9
Result For 2024/25 Season: P7 W1 D4 L2 F9 A15 Pts 7
Result For 2025/26 Season: P7 W4 D2 L1 F13 A5 Pts 16
Although there are still a lot of issues to work out, Thomas Frank has done a fantastic job of converting Spurs losses into draws and draws into victories while maintaining an incredible knack for winning at the Etihad. When your predecessor loses to Ipswich at home, it does help.
